Mailbag: Vikings QB decision, Kevin O’Connell’s draft priorities, and more

Welcome back, everyone. The bye week has come to an end. The Minnesota Vikings, who are at 6-6, will now embark on what promises to be a wild trip in the second half of the season.

There are five games left. There are many unanswered questions. Many of you were wondering who quarterback coach Kevin O’Connell would start this week and how the first 12 weeks of the season would influence the franchise’s offseason selections.

In Week 14, who will start at quarterback (and why)? — Dan B.

We should have an answer by the end of the week. For a variety of reasons, I believe Josh Dobbs will start against the Las Vegas Raiders.

First, another start would give Dobbs more time to arrive on time. Another week to figure out how his drop in the pocket relates to the receivers’ routes. Another week to match how receivers emerge from their breaks. Another week to get the load down at the line of scrimmage down pat.

Second, the Vikings have already seen what Dobbs can accomplish for them, whereas backup Nick Mullens and rookie Jaren Hall are still unknowns. Mullens returned from a significant lower-back injury lately. Meanwhile, Hall has completed one NFL drive in his career. Dobbs had nine turnovers in four games as a Viking, but his total effectiveness on non-turnover drives ranks in the top half of the league.

Third, Minnesota places a premium on operational efficiency. The reintroduction of Justin Jefferson into the offense will benefit the Vikings’ running assault. Minnesota was second in the NFL in rushing success rate before the receiver hurt his hamstring. One item is early-down rushing ability. But, with designer, Dobbs expands what’s feasible on third down and in the red zone.

Proceeding with Dobbs would effectively be a wager on volatility. Dobbs’ lows over the last two weeks have been low, but his highs over the previous two weeks have been spectacular. Regardless of who starts as quarterback, the odds of contending with the NFC elite remain long. They’ll probably go with the option that provides them the best puncher’s chance versus those clubs.

Do you anticipate any significant changes as a result of the bye? Changes in the scheme, increased playing time for young players, more/less aggressive play calling? Greyson K.

Major is definitely an exaggeration. However, I anticipate more premeditated runs for Dobbs, increased shotgun usage, and more post-snap launch point maneuvering.

Dobbs ranks third in the NFL in planned quarterback runs (30) in his first eight games with the Arizona Cardinals this season, trailing only Jalen Hurts and Lamar Jackson. The Vikings have begun to experiment with game-plan-specific run plays and zone-read options. I anticipate more in the future.

Likewise, the Vikings, who led the league in under-center usage prior to Dobbs’ arrival, could use more shotgun. The problem therefore is to match shotgun run notions to shotgun passing concepts, which frequently need different footwork timed up with different routes. This has the ability to change the passing game for the better.

Last week, O’Connell stated that sticking with Dobbs may require “molding and adapting more than we have.” That is something I anticipate happening.

Is the offensive line’s performance worse in the last few games, or are teams blitzing Dobbs more? — Emet L.

Pressure rates aren’t a perfect indicator of an offensive line’s performance, but the Vikings were pressured more in their last two games than in any other games this season.

The blitz had a significant role in the Denver Broncos’ ability to reach Dobbs, but not so much in the Chicago Bears’. According to TruMedia, Chicago used a four-man pass rush on 75% of its snaps. Edge rusher Montez Sweat had a significant role in the game’s demise, and Minnesota may have miscalculated the importance of providing chip assistance to right tackle Brian O’Neill on the edge. Running back Alexander Mattison also fumbled on a few of snaps while attempting to assist O’Neill in coverage.

Dobbs’ drop tempo differs from Kirk Cousins’, as does the consistency of his drops. Both influence offensive line performance. Dobbs, on the other hand, has handled the blitz admirably. He had only one turnover versus five-man (or more) pressure with the Vikings, and he ranks in the top ten in EPA against those defensive looks.

Is Christian Darrisaw really a left tackle worth $20 million per year? Is O’Neill having a bad season? — Brad J.

Yes. And no.

The grades assigned by Pro Football Focus are not without flaws, but they serve as a reliable barometer of player performance. Darrisaw ranks fourth in total grade among 63 offensive linemen who have played 50% of their team’s snaps. The 24-year-old’s pass-blocking effectiveness is somewhat lower than that of Trent Williams and Ryan Ramczyk. Andrew Thomas, 24, of the New York Giants, inked a five-year, $117.5 million agreement earlier this summer ($23.5 million average annual value). Darrisaw’s three-year performance sample places him in Thomas’ category.

This season, O’Neill has been charged with 28 pressures, compared to Darrisaw’s 19. The right tackle handled Cameron Jordan and Nick Bosa for the most part, despite the fact that he is still only 12 games removed from a partially ruptured Achilles tendon.

What are your thoughts on D.J. Wonnum’s growth and the Vikings’ desire to sign him to an extension this offseason? — Mr. Michael J.

On 300 snaps this season, 51 defenders have rushed the quarterback. According to Tru Media, Wonnum ranks 43rd out of 51 in terms of pressure rate. His pressure rate has also decreased year over year. He pressured the quarterback on 9.9 percent of his snaps in 2022. This year, the figure has fallen to 8.9 percent. His winning percentage has also dropped from 8.2 percent in 2022 to 6.7 percent.

So, why does it feel like he’s taken a giant stride forward? It’s most likely a result of splash plays. Wonnum had four sacks last season. He already has six this season.

In terms of a contract extension, the Vikings are well aware of their looming need at edge rusher. Wonnum and Danielle Hunter are both set to become free agents. The Vikings value Wonnum’s dedication and work ethic, but his total productivity leaves much to be desired.

Is it just me, or has Ryan Wright slowed down? — Mr. Steve W.

Analysis of punting! We’ve made it.

Before we get to the data, here’s what O’Connell said following the Bears loss: “We’ve got to get a little cleaner and better, clearly, in our punts to try to pin people down deep.” There have been enough of them that it will be a point of emphasis going forward. It’s fantastic when we can boom them which is important.

Wright, in his second season, is 32nd among 36 qualified punters this season in percentage of punts inside the 20-yard line (23.7 percent). He finished ninth (43.2 percent) last year. Distance has not been an issue — he is averaging 47.6 yards per punt, which is up from previous season — but the unit’s precision should be better.

What happens to Kirk Cousins’ $28 million dead cap charge in 2024 if he signs a contract extension? — Mr. Brandon K.

Cousins’ deal is due to expire at the end of this season, and all bonus money distributed over four void years will be added to the Vikings’ salary limit in 2024.

An extension before March 15th would alter the equation. The Vikings could then relocate money into the future, reducing the current cap hit. Alternatively, they may keep a similar structure in place, keeping their books clean for possible Jefferson and Darrisaw extensions.

Have chats with O’Connell given them a “tell” about the type of QB they want in the draft? — Mr. Brandon W.

O’Connell has not been bashful about expressing his preferences for two attributes in quarterbacks: accuracy and big-game vision. Can a quarterback place the ball in the proper spot? Is he able to view the field, determine what the defender is doing, and move in rhythm and on time? The capacity to extend play is advantageous. More than anything else, O’Connell rewards leaders who can handle the depth of his system and coordinate it on the go against the era’s shape-shifting defenses.

Do you think the quarterbacks in this year’s draft are special enough to warrant a large trade to move up and get one? What would that price entail? — Mr. Leighton C.

The San Francisco 49ers exchanged two future first-round picks for the No. 3 overall pick, Trey Lance. The Kansas City Chiefs exchanged one future first-round pick for the No. 10 pick, Patrick Mahomes. The cost would most likely be in that range.

As for whether any of the quarterbacks are special enough, the answer is in the eye of the beholder and will most likely land up on O’Connell’s desk. Caleb Williams of USC and Drake Maye of North Carolina are unlikely to be considered until the Vikings sell the majority of their premium resources. Jayden Daniels of LSU, J.J. McCarthy of Michigan, Bo Nix of Oregon, and Michael Penix Jr. of Washington all merit a thorough scouting examination.

Finally, the Vikings must assess their quarterback possibilities against their requirements at edge rusher, defensive line interior, and elsewhere.

Is 2024 the year that the “competitive rebuild” gets underway? — Kevin P.

If by “take full swing,” you mean show off the benefits of rebuilding competitively, the answer is yes.

This offseason, the Vikings will have more cap space than they have in recent memory. They will also have nine draft picks. This was always the regime’s goal: Return the chessboard to its initial state before charting a course forward.

This is not to say that the Vikings’ future is secure. Not extending Hunter will not only be unpopular, but it will also put the team’s depth in a premium position to the test. The quarterback dilemma is a tremendous issue in and of itself.