Minnesota Vikings
Who should the Vikings start at quarterback? The Case for Josh Dobbs, Jaren Hall, and Nick Mullens
The Vikings must make a QB decision.
After Kirk Cousins suffered a season-ending Achilles injury just over a month ago, the Vikings shifted gears and acquired Josh Dobbs from the Cardinals for nearly nothing. When Jaren Hall suffered a concussion, Dobbs was pressed into action right immediately, and he capitalized with two fantastic performances in wins over the Falcons and Saints. For a few weeks, the “Passtronaut” was one of the league’s most interesting storylines.
Cracks began to appear in a one-point loss to the Broncos; Dobbs had a couple more magical moments but also committed two errors for the second time in three games. Then it all came crashing down last Monday night against a poor Bears squad. Dobbs, who appeared to be lacking confidence earlier in the month, threw four interceptions in an awful performance for the Vikings’ offense as they fell to a squad that did not score a touchdown.
Following the game, head coach Kevin O’Connell stated that Dobbs will not be the team’s starting quarterback following the bye week. The next day, he maintained his stance, saying the quarterback position “needs to be evaluated to just figure out what we think gives us the best chance to win”.
Dobbs was the only healthy option on the roster when he took over in Atlanta. That is no longer true. Hall, who had fleeting flashes before collapsing, is well. Veteran Nick Mullens, who was previously on injured reserve with a back injury, is also returning.
Which of the three will O’Connell and the 6-6 Vikings start on Sunday against the Raiders? Here’s why each player should be chosen.
Dobbs’ Argument
The question for the Vikings’ offensive coaches is whether they believe Dobbs can return to the form he shown in Atlanta and the first half of the Saints game. That version of Dobbs was free-spirited and made things happen with his arm and legs. He prolonged plays by eluding pressure to either find a receiver downfield or scramble for positive gain, but he also delivered massive throws from the pocket.
As entertaining as the first two of performances were, it’s probably not surprising that they didn’t last. Dobbs is a career journeyman who has played for three different teams this season and seven different teams in his seven NFL seasons (including multiple stints with a number of teams). After starting eight games for the Cardinals to start the season, he was shaky and turnover-prone during a five-game losing skid that preceded the trade to Minnesota.
Dobbs struggled with some fundamental aspects of quarterbacking against the Bears. Things like rhythm, timing, footwork, and accuracy, which Cousins had nearly mastered in this scheme, have been difficult for him recently. The Vikings, according to O’Connell, are still “trying to make up for a lot of time on task that we just don’t have logged with Josh to where he can have some things be second nature to him.”
“There’s still a lot of things that are new for him, and the margin of error when you’re talking about the NFL pass game can be razor thin,” he added.
The Bears were able to limit Dobbs and turn him into a pocket passer, which future opponents will want to do if he remains the starter. He rushed 15 times for 110 yards and two touchdowns in his first two games with the Vikings, but he has only 32 yards (and one touchdown) on ten tries in the two games following. Dobbs only gained 11 yards on two runs against Chicago. When that aspect of his game is removed, it can show shortcomings in his ability to drop back, make the correct read, and deliver an accurate ball within the timing of an offense he’s still learning.
“Over the last couple games, you’ve seen defenses be much more disciplined in their rush patterns,” he added. “They’re really trying to keep him in the pocket as much as they can, working through his progressions.” When he moves, he tends to go backwards and out of the pocket rather than up and out. They’ve done an excellent job of limiting his ability to move out of the pocket and impact the game with his legs or as a passer.
“Defenses, as with any offense, any quarterback in the league, as they get more inventory, they start trying to do some things to take away certain aspects of either a player’s game or your offense,” O’Connell said. “Perhaps play a little more zone. Perhaps play the quarterback with greater vision. Perhaps play with a spy. Maybe the rush lanes are being very disciplined in order to keep him in there, push the pocket, and make him uncomfortable without leaving them vulnerable to some of the scramble plays, all of which is part of the normal ebbs and flows of guys getting more work, getting more film out there for defenses to prepare for.”
Dobbs’ main problem has been turnovers. He has eight in four games with the Vikings, who lead the league in turnovers. A number of his interceptions against the Bears were unlucky, but he also had a potential pick-six lost. Dobbs’ lengthy dropbacks and proclivity for extending plays make him prone to fumbles; his seven this season are the most of any player. If the Vikings do make a quarterback change, turnovers will be a major part in their decision.
“You’re going to have to find some of those chunks in the passing game, but you’ve got to be able to do it without the risk of feeling like you’re going to turn the football over,” said O’Connell.
The case for keeping Dobbs is based on not dismissing what he was able to do in his first couple games following the deal. Yes, he had a bad game against the Bears, but he was also the only player in NFL history to have a throwing and rushing touchdown in each of his first three games with a franchise. Dobbs is a dangerous scrambler with the arm talent to succeed if he makes the correct choices.On paper, he has the brains, athleticism, and character to rebound if given another chance. If that’s the case, the Vikings’ challenge will be to adapt to how the Bears guarded Dobbs while also making him as comfortable with the rhythm and timing of their passing game as possible. Perhaps he still has some magic in him.
“You can’t take away from what Josh was able to accomplish early on,” said O’Connell. “All we have to do now is assess.” Can we keep moving forward? Can we get him to a point where we can be more consistent as an offense (and) decrease our turnovers?”
The Hall Argument
If it were up to the fans to choose, Hall would win in Vegas. They want to see what the BYU rookie can do given a longer opportunity.
When Cousins went down, the stage was set for Hall to get the first shot at the quarterback job and run with it. Unfortunately, his NFL debut was cut short before it could get off to a good start. Hall dashed out for the end zone on a third and short late in the first quarter in Atlanta, but was stopped just short of the goal line. On the play, he got a concussion. It was an awful way to discover that at this level, running lanes close fairly quickly.
Prior to that play, Hall had been a rock for the Vikings on their second drive. A bootleg dump-off to Johnny Mundt for 18 yards, a deep pass to a wide open Alexander Mattison for 47 yards, and a few more completions took the Vikings down to the Falcons’ 1. It wasn’t fantastic, but Hall was carrying out the offense and making sound selections with the ball.
O’Connell stated that Hall “showed some real positives” early in the Falcons game before being knocked out.
Is it time to give the fifth-round pick another go, this time with a full game? Unlike Dobbs, Hall has spent the entire season with this offense. He appeared fairly raw early in the preseason, but showed signs of improvement later in August. Because of his familiarity of the concept, Hall may be able to give some dual-threat capability while executing at a high level from the pocket. Even as a rookie, he may provide the Vikings the best chance to win games in the future. The advantage of going with Hall is that you’ll get to see what you’ve got in him heading into 2024.
The Mullens Argument
The Vikings might potentially go with a player who is familiar with their offense and has started in the NFL. Mullens has been in O’Connell’s system the longest of the three choices, having been acquired in August 2022. The 28-year-old quarterback made eight starts for the 49ers in 2018 and eight more in 2020, finishing 5-11 with 25 touchdown passes and 22 interceptions. In five starts, he had a passer rating above 100.
Mullens is a traditional backup quarterback who has only made one start since 2020. He does not have a really high ceiling. Nonetheless, he may be the Vikings’ most secure option. He’s more of a traditional pocket quarterback who knows how to protect the football.
“Nick, having been here the longest and the way he prepares week-in and week-out, getting him back healthy as an option gives us somebody we could potentially turn to who we know has great comfort in our offense, footwork, timing and the progression, the protection calls and all those things,” O’Connell told the team.
The Vikings may want to maximize the efficiency of Justin Jefferson, their outstanding receiver who is scheduled to play against the Raiders after missing the previous seven games. As an experienced backup who understands how to analyze defenses, he may be the greatest option to assist Jefferson in making a significant influence on the game.
Finally, the Vikings must make a difficult decision based on a variety of circumstances and concerns. We’ll find out what they decide soon enough.
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