Everton’s poor form at Goodison Park: frivolity, worry… and intangibles

Sean Dyche sees an easy answer to Everton’s poor home form.

“We have to put the ball in the net,” he declared this week, ahead of a doubleheader against Newcastle United and Chelsea. “We must maintain our faith. The performances have been excellent, but finishing games and taking chances… that is the next level of home performance.”

Even after 14 games, Everton’s form at Goodison Park remains a major worry. They have only taken four points from a potential 21 at home, with only promoted Burnley taking fewer.

Goodison Park is widely regarded as Everton’s fortress, the classic “tough place to go and play.” However, in recent months, Fulham, Wolves, Arsenal, Luton Town, and Manchester United have all left with maximum points.

Compare this to their strong away form, when they have already won four games more than the previous two seasons combined. Only Tottenham Hotspur had a better away record entering into the midweek round of games after three consecutive triumphs.

Everton’s form at Goodison Park has been an uncommon outlier in a season of development on the pitch. Taking their 10-point deduction into account, they have earned only 23.5 percent of their Premier League points at home, compared to 58 percent last season.

If they maintain this trend throughout the season, they will have the lowest share of home points in Premier League history, surpassing Crystal Palace’s 33% in 1997-98.

During the 1997-98 Premier League season, Palace only won at home 16 times (Fiona Hanson – PA Images/PA Images via Getty Images).

Even in the Covid-19 season, when home advantage was distorted by behind-closed-doors games, Everton scored 37% of their points at Goodison Park.

So, what exactly is going on?

Dyche is correct in highlighting a lack of clinical edge in front of goal.

Everton are joint-third in shots at home (with 124) and joint-fifth in major chances created (22), but they have the league’s poorest big-chance conversion rate, with only 9%. In comparison, the next worst is 25%. Finishing is not a new problem for them; it was also a problem last season, when they were the league’s least clinical team as evaluated against anticipated goals (xG).

This pattern is continuing. As the graph below indicates, they have missed 19 shots from within the six-yard box this season and are underperforming their xG at Goodison Park by 8.8 points.

They have registered a greater xG than their opponent in four of their home defeats, including by a large margin – 2.7 vs 1.3 against Fulham and 2.9 vs 0.9 against Luton, games that were lost 1-0 and 2-1, respectively. Many opportunities are created and squandered.

The primary culprits have been Dominic Calvert-Lewin, Abdoulaye Doucoure, and Neal Maupay, who have xG deficits of 1.5, 1.2, and 1.4 in home games, respectively.

But this is where everything start to go awry.

Calvert-Lewin and Doucoure have been clinical away from home, scoring five times in league games from an xG of little over three. And, as a team, Everton is easily surpassing their xG (up 1.7). So there you have it.

According to one perspective, Everton’s forwards, in particular, get different types of opportunities at home than they do abroad.

Calvert-Lewin has scored two one-on-ones and a low shot from the edge of the box against West Ham, including his goal against Aston Villa in the Carabao Cup. With sides sitting deeper and space at a premium at Goodison, he’s relied on instinctive shoots or headers in the area.

Despite his aerial prowess, Calvert-Lewin has not scored a headed goal since May 2022 against Crystal Palace. Doucoure has also improved his counter-attacking abilities.

Doucoure and Calvert-Lewin have both been effective away from home (Tom Dulat/Getty Images).

The data do suggest, however, that Everton are not as dreadful at home or as good on the road as the results suggest.

Away from Goodison, they are 11th in total shots and 12th in major chances, but they boast the division’s greatest expected goals against (xGA). In other words, when they play away, they are solid defensively and clinical in attack, but they are wasteful at home.

Based on the data, it would not be surprising if things began to even out for the rest of the season. Such deviations from the norm are rarely sustained for an extended period of time.

But possibly there are other factors at play here, some of which are stylistic and some of which fall outside the purview of the law.

Everton are presently the most direct team in the league (according to Opta’s ‘direct speed’ statistic) and prefer long passes over build-up play. The majority of their victories this season have occurred when they have had less possession of the ball than their opponents. They have lost two and drawn one of the three league games in which they have had the majority of possession, including the 2-1 home defeat to Luton and the 3-0 loss to Manchester United.

Dyche endured a series of memorable cup defeats against lower league opponents during his time at Burnley, the most famous coming against Lincoln City, then of the National League, in 2017. Results can suffer when opponents have the physicality to neutralize his direct football.

Lincoln City of the fifth division celebrate their FA Cup fifth round victory against Burnley (Simon Stacpoole / Offside / Getty Images).)

Everton are stronger at holding on to leads than chasing them, both stylistically and statistically. They have yet to lose a game in which they have scored first this season. Meanwhile, they have only taken one point in the eight games in which they have fallen behind.

There could also be a psychological component to all of this. Everton has collected up points in each of their home games, scoring within the first 10 minutes to take the lead. Scoring first helps them to play their natural game, which is to sit deep and frustrate. While playing at home is typically advantageous, it is also easy to buy into the ‘backs against the wall’ narrative when you are not expected to dominate. Away games appear to be more of a free hit.

Everton may be more comfortable away from home now, as a result of their current form, and expect positive results. They appear to be psychologically prepared to resist strain on the road. One outcome could have an impact on the next, resulting in a snowball effect.

With significant home games on the horizon and a 10-point deduction to overcome, Dyche’s developing Everton side faces the next big hurdle in converting chances into goals and pressure into wins at Goodison Park.